MPCA 634 · Market Assessment · Syria
v3 · Round 3 — September 2026
Market
Assessment
Report
Idleb & Hama Governorates — Cash Programming Suitability
100%
Markets Functioning (R3)
100%
Returnee Demand ↑ (R3)
Donor
Implementing Partner
Executive Summary
Key Findings · MPCA 634 · Rounds 1–3 · May–September 2026
This Market Assessment was conducted by Shafak Organisation with the support of IOM as part of the MPCA 634 project, covering 16 traders across Idleb and Hama governorates of Syria during late May and early June 2026. The assessment evaluated market functionality, restocking capacity, commodity prices and trends, and the inclusion of vulnerable groups — to determine the suitability of Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA) as a response modality. The exchange rate at the time of survey was stable at 140–141 New SYP per USD.
1
Markets are broadly functional — MPCA is an appropriate modality
62.5% of assessed markets are fully functioning and support MPCA cash programming; 31.25% are partially functioning and require monitoring; only 1 market (6.25%) was assessed as non-functioning. The overall landscape supports cash-based response with targeted safeguards for partially-functioning sites.
2
Restocking is rapid — supply resilience is adequate
50% of traders restock within 1–3 days and 37.5% within 4–7 days, yielding an average of 5.7 days. This turnaround is sufficient to absorb an influx of cash transfers without persistent stock-outs — a positive indicator for MPCA roll-out.
3
Returnee influx is driving demand — prices rising across most items
87.5% of traders confirmed that the recent returnee influx has increased demand. Prices rose for all monitored commodities except diesel (−6.6%), with eggs (+17.9%), blankets (+12%), and mattresses (+11.4%) recording the sharpest increases. Infrastructure damage and transport costs are key price drivers.
4
Inclusion indicators are strong — all groups can access markets
100% of traders confirmed equal market access for all groups. All 16 traders confirmed that women returnees and female-headed households can access markets independently and safely. 93.75% confirmed access for persons with disabilities — a strong inclusion baseline for MPCA programming.
Overall assessment: Markets in Idleb and Hama are sufficiently functional to support an MPCA cash response. Key risks to monitor are infrastructure constraints, rising prices driven by returnee demand, and the 1 non-functioning market site requiring an alternative modality.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2 (17 traders, 19–20 August) improved every structural indicator: markets rated fully functioning rose from 62.5% to 94.1%, none was rated non-functioning, roads in good condition rose from 37.5% to 70.6% and the median restock time fell from 3.5 to 3.0 days. Round 3 (18 traders, 15–16 September) completed that trend — all 18 markets are rated fully functioning and every trader restocks within seven days. Affordability moved the other way. Staples continued to rise (diesel +40.9%, rice +17.1%, bulgur +17.0%, sugar +14.4% month-on-month), returnee-driven demand became universal at 18 of 18, and the share of traders judging returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community fell again, from 62.5% to 47.1% to 16.7%. Section 02 sets out the full comparison.
Summary of Key Metrics
At-a-Glance Dashboard · MPCA 634
140
New SYP / USD (Avg Rate)
Market Functionality Overview
Price Trend Summary (Month-on-Month)
| Commodity | Price (Month Ago) | Price (Now) | Change (New SYP) | % Change | Trend | R2 Avg Now | R2 Change | R2 N | R3 Avg Now | R3 Change | R3 N |
|---|
| Eggs (per dozen) | 292.5 | 345.0 | +52.5 | +17.9% | ↑ Up | — | — | — | 435.0 | ▲ +8.8% | 2 ⚠ |
| Blankets | 1,411.0 | 1,580.0 | +169.0 | +12.0% | ↑ Up | 2,133.3 | — -0.8% | 3 ⚠ | 2,840.0 | ▲ +25.7% | 5 |
| Mattresses | 1,426.5 | 1,589.7 | +163.2 | +11.4% | ↑ Up | 2,300.0 | ▲ +13.6% | 4 ⚠ | 2,340.0 | ▲ +15.8% | 5 |
| Vegetable Oil (L) | 227.0 | 246.3 | +19.3 | +8.5% | ↑ Up | 288.6 | ▲ +10.1% | 7 | 329.3 | ▲ +10.5% | 7 |
| Flour (kg) | 61.4 | 65.8 | +4.4 | +7.2% | ↑ Up | 90.0 | ▲ +20.0% | 2 ⚠ | 90.0 | ▲ +12.5% | 2 ⚠ |
| Rice (kg) | 136.7 | 145.0 | +8.3 | +6.1% | ↑ Up | 119.3 | ▲ +4.4% | 7 | 126.4 | ▲ +17.1% | 7 |
| Bulgur (kg) | 92.5 | 97.7 | +5.2 | +5.6% | ↑ Up | 90.7 | ▲ +2.4% | 7 | 113.6 | ▲ +17.0% | 7 |
| Chickpeas (kg) | 106.6 | 110.0 | +3.4 | +3.2% | ↑ Up | — | — | — | 200.0 | ▲ +5.3% | 1 ⚠ |
| Sugar (kg) | 88.7 | 90.3 | +1.7 | +1.9% | ↑ Up | 107.5 | ▲ +14.1% | 6 | 125.0 | ▲ +14.4% | 7 |
| Bread (pack) | 45.0 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0% | → Stable | — | — | — | 60.0 | — 0.0% | 1 ⚠ |
| Diesel (L) | 99.0 | 92.4 | −6.6 | −6.6% | ↓ Down | 120.0 | ▲ +8.9% | 5 | 175.0 | ▲ +40.9% | 6 |
All prices in New SYP. N varies by commodity (see Section 06). Exchange rate: 140–141 New SYP/USD at time of survey.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2 tracked eight of these items; no Round 2 trader carried eggs, chicken, chickpeas, bread or hygiene items, so no prices exist for those lines. Round 3 tracked eleven: eggs, chickpeas and bread returned to the sample, and only chicken and hygiene items remain unpriced. Ten of the eleven rose month-on-month and none fell. Round 2 averages exclude five data-entry errors listed in Section 02; the same screen applied to Round 3 excluded nothing.
Section 02
02
Round 1 → Round 3
Comparison
Change Over Time · May–June, August and September 2026
Round 1 → Round 3 Comparison
16 (Jun) · 17 (Aug) · 18 Traders (Sep) · Same 4 Sub-Districts
Rounds 2 and 3 repeat the Round 1 trader instrument across the same four sub-districts in Idleb and Hama. Across the series the structural picture strengthens and the affordability picture weakens. Market functionality reached 100% in Round 3 and restocking stayed inside a week for every trader, while road condition gave back part of its Round 2 gain. On the demand side, every Round 3 trader reports returnee-driven demand, but only 3 of 18 judge returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community, down from 8 of 17 and 10 of 16.
| Indicator | Round 1 (Jun) |
Round 2 (Aug) | Round 3 (Sep) | Reading |
|---|
| Traders surveyed | 16 | 17 | 18 | Same 4 sub-districts in all three rounds; Kafr Nobol town replaced Maar Tamater from R2 |
| Markets fully functioning | 10 (62.5%) | 16 (94.1%) | 18 (100%) | Improved in each round; every R3 market rated MPCA-ready |
| Partially functioning | 5 (31.3%) | 1 (5.9%) | 0 (0.0%) | Monitoring caseload now nil |
| Non-functioning | 1 (6.3%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | Eastern Deir, non-functioning in R1, functioning in R2 and R3 |
| Roads in good condition | 6 (37.5%) | 12 (70.6%) | 8 (44.4%) | Reverses part of the R2 gain — the one indicator to fall |
| Median restock time | 3.5 days | 3.0 days | 3.0 days | Stable; in R3 every trader restocked within seven days |
| Equal access confirmed | 100% | 100% | 100% | Unchanged; no access barriers reported in any round |
| Returnee demand increased | 14 (87.5%) | 14 (82.4%) | 18 (100%) | Universal in R3 — every trader reports returnee-driven demand |
| Returnee purchasing power ≈ host | 10 (62.5%) | 8 (47.1%) | 3 (16.7%) | Falls again — the affordability gap is widening |
| USD-only pricing | 6 (37.5%) | 1 (5.9%) | 2 (11.1%) | Still marginal; New SYP remains the pricing currency |
Overall reading. Three rounds strengthen rather than weaken the case for cash. Physical market capacity is no longer in question — every Round 3 market is rated able to support cash programming — so the binding constraint is household purchasing power alone. The share of traders judging returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community has fallen in each round, 62.5% → 47.1% → 16.7%, while returnee-driven demand became universal. Markets can absorb the transfers; the caseload cannot absorb the prices.
What the three rounds can and cannot show
Rounds 2 and 3 were each collected after an MPCA distribution cycle. Together they show that market capacity improved steadily and that staple prices continued to rise, but they cannot attribute either movement to the cash transfers. All 18 Round 3 traders operate in project communities, as in the earlier rounds, with no comparison group of markets outside the intervention. Improvement in functionality and road access may equally reflect wider recovery in the area. Attribution would require a non-project comparison group in a future round.
Data-quality note — five values excluded from Round 2 averages
- Blanket — month-ago price recorded as 22,600 New SYP against a round median of 2,600
- Diesel — price of 1,200 New SYP/litre against a round median of 120
- Sugar — current price recorded as 10 New SYP/kg against a month-ago price of 95
- Mattress — 50 New SYP/piece, and Blanket — 35 New SYP/piece (both quoted in USD, not New SYP)
The same screen applied to the Round 3 submissions excluded nothing — every Round 3 value fell within the expected range.
Section 03
03
Geographic
Coverage
Idleb & Hama · 4 Sub-Districts · 51 Traders Across 3 Rounds
Geographic Distribution of Traders
By Governorate, District & Sub-District
The assessment covered 16 traders across two governorates: Idleb (10 traders, 62.5%) spanning Al Ma'ra and Idleb districts, and Hama (6 traders, 37.5%) in Muhradah district. Data was collected across three field days: 24 May (7 traders), 25 May (3 traders), and 1 June 2026 (6 traders).
| Governorate | District | Sub-District | Traders | % |
|---|
| Idleb | Al Ma'ra | Kafr Nobol | 3 | 18.8% |
| Maarrat An Numan | 4 | 25.0% |
| Idleb | Saraqab | 3 | 18.8% |
| Hama | Muhradah | Muhradah | 6 | 37.5% |
| TOTAL | 16 | 100% |
Sub-District Breakdown
| Sub-District | Traders | % | Round 2 |
|---|
| Muhradah (Hama) | 6 | 37.5% | 6 |
| Maarrat An Nu'man (Idleb) | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| Kafr Nobol (Idleb) | 3 | 18.8% | 3 |
| Saraqab (Idleb) | 3 | 18.8% | 3 |
Traders by Governorate · Round 1
Traders by Sub-District · Round 1
Methodology Note
Sample: 16 purposively selected traders stratified by trader type (food, NFI, fuel) across Idleb and Hama.
Prices: Current and month-ago prices per commodity in New SYP. Exchange rate: 140–141 New SYP/USD at survey date.
Coverage: Commodities with N<3 are indicative only. 14 commodity types tracked across 3 trader categories.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2 covered 17 traders across the same four sub-districts — 11 in Idleb and 6 in Hama — with the sampled community in Kafr Nobol shifting from Maar Tamater to Kafr Nobol town. Round 3 covered 18 traders across the same four sub-districts, 12 in Idleb and 6 in Hama: Muhradah 6, Saraqab 4, Ma'arrat An Nu'man 3, Kafr Nobol 3 and Eastern Deir 2. The geographic frame has been stable since Round 2.
Field Location Map
Survey Sites · Idleb (Blue) & Hama (Orange)
Interactive map: Circle size reflects the number of traders surveyed. Colour-coded by governorate: Blue = Idleb, Orange = Hama.
Section 04
04
Trader Profile
& Market Types
Trader Categories · Currency · Market Location · Competition
Trader Profile & Market Characteristics
Work Position · Currency · Location · Competition
The 16 assessed traders span three commodity categories: Fuel traders were the largest group (6, 37.5%), followed equally by Food traders and NFI traders (5 each, 31.25%). Markets are predominantly located in town centres (50%) with significant presence in northern and western zones. Average market competition stands at 12.2 competing shops — indicating healthy market depth for MPCA cash programming.
Trader Category Distribution · Round 1
| Trader Type | Count | % | Round 2 |
|---|
| Fuel (Diesel, Jerry Cans…) | 6 | 37.5% | 6 |
| Food Trader / Wholesaler | 5 | 31.3% | 6 |
| NFI (Blankets, Mattresses…) | 5 | 31.3% | 5 |
Pricing Currency Used · Round 1
62.5%
Use New SYP & USD (Dual)
50%
Located in Town Centre
Currency note: 62.5% of traders price in both New SYP and USD depending on buyer preference. This dual-currency environment means MPCA transfers in New SYP can be readily used — traders accommodate both currencies and the local rate was stable at 140–141 New SYP/USD throughout the survey period.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: the trader mix was near-identical to Round 1 — 6 fuel, 6 food and 5 NFI — and traders quoting in USD only fell from 6 to 1, consistent with the New SYP strengthening from 140 to 133 per USD. Round 3: 6 fuel, 7 food and 5 NFI traders. Pricing currency stayed predominantly local: 6 quote in New SYP alone, 10 accept either depending on the buyer, and 2 quote in USD only. The shift back to New SYP pricing recorded in Round 2 has held.
Section 05
05
Market
Functionality
MPCA Suitability Assessment · Road Quality · Competition
Market Functionality & MPCA Suitability
Functionality Rating · Road Quality · Competition Depth
Market functionality was assessed by enumerators based on trader-reported availability, restocking capacity, road access, and competitive environment. 10 of 16 markets (62.5%) are fully functioning and appropriate for MPCA cash programming. Five markets require close monitoring due to partial functionality, and one market was assessed as non-functioning — pointing to a need for an alternative in-kind modality for that site.
Market Functionality Rating · Round 1
Road & Access Quality · Round 1
Road risk: 62.5% of surveyed markets are accessed by damaged roads. This significantly raises transport costs and contributes to the supply chain pressures driving price inflation across all commodity categories.
| Functionality Category | Trader Count | % of Total | MPCA Implication | R2 Traders | R2 % | R3 Traders | R3 % |
|---|
| ✔ Functioning — supports MPCA |
10 |
62.5% |
Cash transfers can be rolled out immediately |
16 | 94.1% | 18 | 100% |
| ⚠ Partially functioning — monitoring needed |
5 |
31.3% |
Proceed with enhanced monitoring; address infrastructure gaps |
1 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0% |
| ✖ Non-functioning — cash not appropriate |
1 |
6.3% |
Consider in-kind modality or referral to functional market |
0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| TOTAL | 16 (100%) | 93.75% support or partially support MPCA | 17 | 100% | 18 | 100% |
Competition depth: Traders reported an average of 12.2 competing shops (median: 7, range: 1–45) in their marketplace. Higher competition means better price discovery and reduced risk of monopolistic pricing when cash is injected.
Market positioning: 50% of traders are in town centres — accessible to most households. Distributed coverage across north (37.5%), west (37.5%), and south (25%) zones supports broad geographic reach for cash recipients.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: functionality improved markedly — 16 of 17 traders (94.1%) rated their market able to support MPCA cash programming, against 62.5% in Round 1, and Eastern Deir, the single non-functioning market in Round 1, was rated functioning by both of its traders. Round 3: all 18 traders (100%) rate their market fully functioning, with no partially functioning or non-functioning market anywhere in the sample. Road condition moved the other way: markets reached by roads in good condition fell to 8 of 18 (44.4%) from 70.6% in Round 2, the only indicator in the series to deteriorate.
Section 06
06
Restocking
Capacity
Warehouse Restock Speed · Supply Resilience · Stock Types
Restocking Capacity & Supply Resilience
Days to Restock Warehouse · Stock Types Held
Restocking speed is a critical proxy for supply resilience in the context of an MPCA cash injection. When cash transfers reach beneficiaries simultaneously, markets must be able to replenish rapidly to avoid price spikes and stock-outs. 87.5% of traders can restock within 7 days, with half able to restock within 1–3 days — indicating strong supply chain responsiveness across the assessed markets.
Restock Speed Distribution · Round 1
Stock Types Held by Traders · Round 1
⚠ One trader reported a 30-day restock time — a significant outlier (std dev: 6.99 days) suggesting a remote location or limited supply chain access. This site may warrant in-kind supplementation alongside cash transfers.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: restocking remained fast — median 3.0 days against 3.5 in Round 1 — with 12 of 17 traders restocking within three days, though two still reported 15 days or more. Round 3: the tail disappeared. Eleven of 18 traders restock within three days and the remaining seven within four to seven; no trader reported more than a week. Supply turnaround continues to support a cash modality without stock-out risk, and now does so without a slow minority.
Section 07
07
Commodity
Prices & Trends
Current Prices · Month-on-Month Changes · New SYP
Commodity Prices — Food & Fuel
Current Prices (New SYP) · N = Traders Reporting per Commodity
Prices below are drawn from the reference market prices reported by traders. Multiple traders may sell the same commodity at different prices, reflecting geographic variation and supply chain differences. Key finding: all food commodities rose in price month-on-month except bread (stable) and diesel (−6.6%). Rice (+6.1%), bulgur (+5.6%), and vegetable oil (+8.5%) all recorded meaningful increases.
| Commodity | Unit | Min (New SYP) | Max (New SYP) | Median | Avg Now | N | Trend | R2 Avg Now | R2 Change | R2 N | R3 Avg Now | R3 Change | R3 N |
|---|
| Rice | per kg | 110 | 220 | 125 | 145.0 | 6 | +6.1% | 119.3 | ▲ +4.4% | 7 | 126.4 | ▲ +17.1% | 7 |
| Bulgur | per kg | 90 | 110 | 95.5 | 97.7 | 6 | +5.6% | 90.7 | ▲ +2.4% | 7 | 113.6 | ▲ +17.0% | 7 |
| Sugar | per kg | 85 | 96 | 90 | 90.3 | 6 | +1.9% | 107.5 | ▲ +14.1% | 6 | 125.0 | ▲ +14.4% | 7 |
| Vegetable Oil | per litre | 28 | 300 | 290 | 246.3 | 6 | +8.5% | 288.6 | ▲ +10.1% | 7 | 329.3 | ▲ +10.5% | 7 |
| Chickpeas | per kg | 62 | 180 | 120 | 110.0 | 5 | +3.2% | — | — | — | 200.0 | ▲ +5.3% | 1 ⚠ |
| Flour | per kg | 62 | 70 | 65 | 65.8 | 5 | +7.2% | 90.0 | ▲ +20.0% | 2 ⚠ | 90.0 | ▲ +12.5% | 2 ⚠ |
| Bread | per pack (8–10 loaves) | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45.0 | 2 | Stable | — | — | — | 60.0 | — 0.0% | 1 ⚠ |
| Eggs | per dozen | 300 | 390 | 345 | 345.0 | 2 | +17.9% | — | — | — | 435.0 | ▲ +8.8% | 2 ⚠ |
| Chicken | per kg | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000.0 | 1 | +5.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diesel | per litre | 12 | 130 | 121 | 92.4 | 7 | −6.6% | 120.0 | ▲ +8.9% | 5 | 175.0 | ▲ +40.9% | 6 |
Month-on-Month Price Change (%) — Food Commodities · Round 1
⚠ Items with N<3 (Bread N=2, Eggs N=2, Chicken N=1) carry high uncertainty. Vegetable oil shows a wide range (28–300 New SYP/L) reflecting different reporting units across traders; interpret average with caution.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: prices confirmed continued staple inflation — flour +20.0%, sugar +14.1%, vegetable oil +10.1%, diesel +8.9%, rice +4.4% and bulgur +2.4%. Round 3: the pressure intensified. Diesel rose 40.9% against traders' recalled month-ago price, with rice +17.1%, bulgur +17.0%, sugar +14.4%, flour +12.5%, vegetable oil +10.5% and eggs +8.8%. Ten of the eleven tracked items rose and none fell. Coverage still follows each trader's own stock list, so figures resting on fewer than five traders are marked ⚠ and are indicative.
NFI Item Prices — Mattresses & Blankets
Non-Food Items · New SYP · N=6 Traders (per item)
Non-Food Items (NFIs) — particularly mattresses and blankets — are critical components of the MPCA basket for displaced and newly returned households. Both items recorded significant price increases month-on-month: blankets +12% and mattresses +11.4%, driven by infrastructure constraints and returnee-driven demand surges. Supply origins for NFIs include Damascus and Aleppo, making them more sensitive to inter-city transport costs.
1,580
Avg Blanket Price (New SYP)
1,590
Avg Mattress Price (New SYP)
+12%
Blanket Price Increase
| NFI Item | Min (New SYP) | Max (New SYP) | Median | Avg (Month Ago) | Avg (Now) | % Change | N | R2 Avg Now | R2 Change | R2 N | R3 Avg Now | R3 Change | R3 N |
|---|
| Mattresses | 18 | 3,360 | 1,950 | 1,426.5 | 1,589.7 | +11.4% | 6 | 2,300.0 | ▲ +13.6% | 4 ⚠ | 2,340.0 | ▲ +15.8% | 5 |
| Blankets | 20 | 3,500 | 1,900 | 1,411.0 | 1,580.0 | +12.0% | 6 | 2,133.3 | — -0.8% | 3 ⚠ | 2,840.0 | ▲ +25.7% | 5 |
NFI Price Comparison — Month Ago vs Now (New SYP Avg) · Round 1
⚠ Wide price range for NFIs: Mattresses range from 18 to 3,360 New SYP and blankets from 20 to 3,500 New SYP. This extreme spread reflects mixed quality grades in the market — from thin single-use foam to full household-grade items. The averages (1,590 / 1,580 New SYP) are indicative of mid-market quality. Supply origins span Damascus, Aleppo, and rural Hama, reflecting multi-source procurement.
NFI Item Prices — Mattresses & Blankets
MPCA Basket Specifications & Round 2 Movement
📦 Standard MPCA Basket Specifications:
The MPCA transfer value is based on the following standard-grade items:
• Mattress: Single household-grade foam mattress, approx. 5–7 kg (standard thickness 8–10 cm, 190×90 cm) — suitable for adult household use.
• Blanket: Acrylic fleece blanket, approx. 1.5–2 kg (standard size 200×150 cm) — adequate for seasonal warmth.
Items priced at the low end (18–20 New SYP) represent thin or second-hand products inconsistent with basket standards. The reported average price range (1,580–1,590 New SYP) corresponds to mid-market standard-grade items used in transfer value calculation.
MPCA basket implication: The sharp price rises for blankets (+12%) and mattresses (+11.4%) — both critical for shelter dignity — suggest that MPCA transfer values should be calibrated to current market prices and reviewed monthly to preserve purchasing power for displaced and returning households.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: mattresses rose 13.6% while blankets were essentially flat at −0.8%; both figures exclude submissions quoted in USD and a blanket recorded at 22,600 New SYP — see the data-quality note in Section 02. Round 3: both rose on cleaner samples of five traders each — blankets +25.7% (2,260 → 2,840) and mattresses +15.8% (2,020 → 2,340) — with no values excluded. NFI cost pressure is now the sharpest in the assessment after fuel.
Section 08
08
Market Access
& Inclusion
Equal Access · PWD Access · Women's Safety · All Groups
Market Access & Inclusion Indicators
Equal Access · Persons with Disabilities · Women & Female-Headed Households
Market inclusion is a precondition for effective MPCA programming — if beneficiaries cannot physically or safely access markets, cash transfers fail to deliver. The assessment found exceptionally strong inclusion indicators across all assessed markets: 100% of traders confirmed equal access for all groups, safe access for women returnees and female-headed households, and near-universal access for persons with disabilities.
Market Visitor Access by Group · Round 1
✔ Women & FHH Access
16 of 16 traders (100%) confirmed that women returnees and female-headed households can access the market independently and safely. No barriers to women's market access were reported at any surveyed site — a key positive gender indicator for MPCA suitability.
♿ PWD Access
16 of 16 traders (100%) confirmed that persons with disabilities have access to the marketplace (specific PWD access question). Additionally, 15 of 16 traders (93.75%) explicitly selected "Disabled People" in the multi-category access question — indicating near-universal physical accessibility across all sites.
⚖ Equal Access
16 of 16 traders (100%) confirmed that different groups in the area have equal access opportunities to the marketplace. This is a strong baseline for non-discriminatory MPCA programming.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: access findings held — all 17 traders confirmed that women, female-headed households and the elderly can reach the market without restriction, and 13 of 17 explicitly listed persons with disabilities. Round 3: the same pattern, with all 18 traders confirming equal access and 15 of 18 explicitly listing persons with disabilities. No gender-based barrier has been reported in any of the three rounds.
Section 09
09
Returnee
Impact
Demand Dynamics · Purchasing Power · Qualitative Insights
Returnee Impact on Market Demand
Demand Surge · Purchasing Power · Trader Qualitative Responses
The return of displaced populations to Idleb and Hama is having a measurable effect on market dynamics. 14 of 16 traders (87.5%) reported that the recent returnee influx has increased demand for goods. While this signals economic re-engagement, it also raises prices and can strain supply availability — particularly for households with limited purchasing power.
87.5%
Traders: Returnees ↑ Demand
62.5%
Returnee Purchasing Power ≈ Host
37.5%
Returnees Lower Purchasing Power
Returnee Demand Impact (% Traders) · Round 1
| Question | Yes | No | % Yes | R2 Yes | R2 No | R2 % Yes |
|---|
| Returnee influx increased demand? | 14 | 2 | 87.5% | 14 | 3 | 82.4% |
| Returnee purchasing power ≈ host? | 10 | 6 | 62.5% | 8 | 9 | 47.1% |
Qualitative Themes — Trader Responses (N=10 notes)
10/10
Increased demand for goods
All 10 traders who provided qualitative notes mentioned increased demand directly linked to the returnee influx — confirming the quantitative finding (87.5% yes rate).
2/10
Price increases noted alongside demand
2 traders explicitly linked rising prices to increased demand: "Goods are available in warehouses but rising prices negatively affect demand" and "Demand for basic commodities has increased despite rising prices."
2/10
Stock availability concern raised
2 traders noted concerns about stock availability alongside demand increases — a signal that supply chains may come under stress if returnee numbers continue to grow without corresponding restocking support.
MPCA relevance: With 37.5% of returnees assessed as having lower purchasing power than host community members, targeted MPCA transfers are critical to ensuring this sub-group can participate in the market on equal terms. The strong demand signal is also consistent with market viability for cash programming.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Round 2: returnee demand pressure persisted, with 14 of 17 traders (82.4%) reporting increased demand, while the share judging returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community fell from 62.5% to 47.1%. Round 3: demand pressure became universal — all 18 traders report that returnee arrivals have raised demand — while the affordability judgement fell again to 3 of 18 (16.7%). Across the three rounds the series reads 62.5% → 47.1% → 16.7%. This is the clearest signal in the assessment of continued need for cash support to the returnee caseload.
Section 10
10
Conclusions &
Recommendations
MPCA Suitability · Key Risks · Priority Actions
Conclusions & Recommendations
MPCA 634 · Idleb & Hama · May–September 2026 · v3
Round 1 conclusion (June 2026): Markets in Idleb and Hama governorates are broadly suitable for MPCA cash programming. 62.5% of assessed markets are fully functioning, 87.5% of traders can restock within 7 days, and inclusion indicators for all vulnerable groups are strong. Key risks — infrastructure damage, rising prices, and a small share of lower-capacity returnees — are manageable with targeted programming adjustments.
Positive Findings
✔ 62.5% of markets fully functioning for MPCA
✔ 50% of traders restock within 1–3 days
✔ Average 12.2 competing shops per market
✔ 100% women's safe and independent market access
✔ 100% equal access for all community groups
✔ 93.75% PWD market access confirmed
✔ Stable exchange rate (140–141 New SYP/USD)
Risks & Gaps
⚠ 62.5% of roads assessed as damaged
⚠ 1 market non-functioning (6.25%) — needs in-kind
⚠ 5 markets partially functioning (31.25%)
⚠ Eggs +17.9%, blankets +12%, mattresses +11.4% month-on-month
⚠ 37.5% of returnees have lower purchasing power
⚠ 1 trader: 30-day restock time (outlier)
⚠ PWD access gap at 1 market site
Priority Recommendations
R1
Proceed with MPCA in functioning markets
We recommend activating cash transfers at the 10 fully-functioning market sites, with transfer values calibrated to current prices (especially eggs, blankets, mattresses which rose >10%).
R2
Enhanced monitoring at partially-functioning sites
For the 5 partially-functioning markets, implement monthly price monitoring and market functionality re-assessments. Address infrastructure barriers (road access) where feasible through advocacy.
R3
Alternative modality for non-functioning market
The 1 non-functioning market requires in-kind assistance or referral to the nearest functional market. Investigate specific barriers to reactivation and set a reassessment timeline.
R4
MPCA transfer value review — monthly calibration
With month-on-month price increases of up to 17.9% for key items, we recommend reviewing MPCA transfer values monthly against the minimum expenditure basket (MEB) to preserve purchasing power.
Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026
Neither later round overturns the Round 1 recommendation; both strengthen it. Every structural constraint identified in June — market functionality, road access, restocking speed — had improved by August, and by September market functionality reached 100% with no trader restocking in more than a week. The affordability constraint moved the opposite way: staples rose in both intervals, fuel rose 40.9% in September alone, and the share of traders judging returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community fell from 62.5% to 16.7%. The recommendation to proceed with MPCA therefore stands with greater confidence than in June, with transfer values reviewed against the September basket rather than the June or August one, and the monitoring cycle continued into a fourth round — ideally including a small non-project comparison group so that attribution becomes possible.
Assessment Outcome
62.5% of assessed markets
support MPCA cash programming
in Idleb & Hama
Markets are broadly functional with rapid restocking capacity and strong inclusion indicators. Returnee demand is driving prices up — transfer value calibration and monthly monitoring are the priority actions.
Donor
Implementing Partner
MPCA 634 · Market Assessment · Idleb & Hama Governorates, Syria · May–September 2026 · v3
Implemented by Shafak Organisation · Funded by International Organisation for Migration (IOM)