Price Monitoring Report — Idleb & Hama

Market Price Monitoring · Syria

v3 · Round 3 — September 2026

Price Monitoring
Report

Idleb & Hama Governorates, Syria

112

Shops Surveyed

3

Survey Rounds

110.7

Basket Index (R1=100)

92.9%

Prices Rising (R3)

Reporting Period

May – September 2026 · Rounds 1–3

Survey Window

R1: 24 May–1 Jun · R2: 19–20 Aug · R3: 15–16 Sep 2026

Implementing Partner

Shafak Organisation

Donor

International Organisation for Migration (IOM)

Reference Exchange Rate

R1: 140.24 · R2: 132.72 New SYP per USD

Project Code

MPCA 634

Donor

Implementing Partner

Table of Contents

Price Monitoring Report · Idleb & Hama · May–September 2026 · v3

01Executive Summary03 02Round 1 → Round 3 Comparison04 03Geographic Coverage08 04Market Overview & Price Trends11 05Vegetables13 06Staples & Dry Goods15 07Proteins (Meat & Poultry)18 08Utilities & Housing20 09Hygiene Items22 10Price Change Factors24

Version Note — v3, Rounds 1–3

This is version 3 of the Price Monitoring Report. It consolidates Round 1 (33 shops, 24 May – 1 June 2026), Round 2 (37 shops, 19–20 August 2026) and Round 3 (42 shops, 15–16 September 2026) into a single document, so that IOM holds one current reference covering all three rounds.

Timing and scope. Rounds 2 and 3 were each collected after an MPCA distribution cycle, but both repeat the market-side shop and trader instruments used in Round 1. Neither is a beneficiary Post-Distribution Monitoring (PDM) exercise, and the report contains no household-level receipt, expenditure or satisfaction data.

Methodology. All Round 1 figures are reproduced exactly as issued in the June 2026 report and have not been recalculated. Round 2 movements are measured against the Round 1 survey averages, and Round 3 movements against the Round 2 averages, for the same commodity. Category indices set Round 1 = 100 throughout, so the Round 2 and Round 3 index columns are directly comparable. Where a round sample is below five shops the figure is marked ⚠ and should be read as indicative.

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Executive Summary

Key Findings · MPCA 634 · Rounds 1–3 · May–September 2026

This report presents findings from a market price-monitoring exercise conducted across 33 retail shops in the Idleb and Hama governorates of Syria during late May and early June 2026. Implemented by Shafak with the support of IOM, the assessment tracked cheapest and highest reported prices for essential commodities — fresh produce, food staples, proteins, fuel, water, housing and hygiene items — alongside shopkeepers' assessments of recent price movements and their underlying drivers. At collection time, the average exchange rate stood at 140.24 New SYP and 46.10 TL per US dollar. The dominant finding is a broad, currency-driven inflationary trend: 78.8% of monitored shops reported overall price increases compared with the previous month.

33

Shops Surveyed

140.24

Avg New SYP per USD

78.8%

Shops Reporting Rising Prices

~95%

Items with Adequate Supply

1

Prices are rising across nearly every category

78.8% of shops reported a general price increase month-on-month. Basic Food, Basic Commodities and Hygiene Items registered 100% of shops reporting increases; only Meat showed a more mixed picture (58.3% rising), partly offset by seasonal easing in vegetable prices (48.5% rising vs 48.5% falling).

2

Currency and transport are the leading cost drivers

Currency fluctuation (68 total citations) and transport costs (58 citations) were by far the most-cited reasons for price changes, far outweighing demand, taxes, trade routes and supply. Vegetable sellers cited both currency and transport at 75.8%, and basic food sellers cited currency at 66.7%.

3

Coverage spans two governorates and five market types

The 33 shops cover Idleb (17) and Hama (16), across five market categories — Meat (36.4%), Vegetables (27.3%), Basic Food (21.2%), Hygiene Items (18.2%) and Basic Commodities (12.1%) — providing broad coverage of the local food and essentials basket.

4

Supply adequacy is strong despite rising prices

Despite broad price increases, the vast majority of surveyed commodities showed adequate supply levels. For vegetables, 8–9 out of 9 shops reported "Adequate supplies — meet the demand" across almost all items. This is a critical positive signal: the crisis is one of affordability, not physical availability — underscoring the relevance of cash-based response modalities.

Headline finding: With nearly four in five shops reporting rising prices and currency depreciation cited as the primary driver, household purchasing power for essential goods is under sustained pressure across Idleb and Hama. This points to a continued case for cash-based response, with targeting reviewed against current prices.

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2 (37 shops, 19–20 August) put the all-item basket 3.7% above Round 1, with 81.1% of shops reporting increases; the movement was divergent, protein +35.5% and utilities +12.3% against fresh vegetables −10.6% on the summer harvest. Round 3 (42 shops, 15–16 September) closed that divergence: the basket rose a further 6.8%, 92.9% of shops (39 of 42) reported increases — the highest of the three rounds — vegetables returned above their June level, staples accelerated to an index of 116.4 and diesel rose 49.4%. The New SYP moved 140.2 → 132.7 → 135.0 per USD, leaving the basket 10.7% above Round 1 in New SYP and 15.0% above it in USD. Section 02 sets out the full comparison.

Section 02

02

Round 1 → Round 3
Comparison

Change Over Time · May–June, August and September 2026

Round 1 → Round 3 Comparison

Measured Change · 33 Shops (Jun) · 37 Shops (Aug) · 42 Shops (Sep)

Three rounds now give a measured series rather than a single comparison. Every price movement is calculated against the previous round's survey average for the same commodity, rather than taken from the trader's own recollection. Round 2 showed a divergence — protein and fuel up, fresh vegetables down — that held the basket to 3.7% above June. Round 3 closed that divergence: vegetables returned above their June level, staples accelerated and diesel rose by half, lifting the basket a further 6.8% and leaving it 10.7% above Round 1.

33 → 37 → 42

Coverage

140.2 → 132.7 → 135.0

Exchange Rate

100 → 103.7 → 110.7

Basket Index

78.8% → 81.1% → 92.9%

Shops Reporting ↑

Category	Round 1 (Jun)	Round 2 (Aug)	Round 3 (Sep)	Reading
Vegetables	100.0	89.4	103.2	Seasonal relief reversed once the harvest window closed
Staples & Dry Goods	100.0	102.9	116.4	Sharpest Round 3 move — flour, bread and grains all up
Proteins (Meat)	100.0	135.5	139.8	Still the highest index, but the pace of increase slowed
Utilities & Housing	100.0	112.3	96.6	Diesel +49.4%; index pulled down by water and rent — see Section 08
Hygiene Items	100.0	105.8	103.7	Near-flat; diapers up, soap and pads indicative only

Sample Coverage by Round

Governorate	Round 1 (Jun)	Round 2 (Aug)	Round 3 (Sep)	Combined
Idleb	17	26	29	72
Hama	16	11	13	40
Total	33	37	42	112

How to read the index. Each category index sets the Round 1 average for that category at 100 and expresses the later rounds against it. A value of 139.8 for proteins means the average protein price in September was 39.8% above June. Both Round 2 and Round 3 are expressed against that same Round 1 base, so the two columns are directly comparable. The all-item index of 110.7 is the mean of the individual commodity ratios, so it is not weighted by household consumption share and should not be read as a CPI.

What the three rounds can and cannot show

Rounds 2 and 3 were both collected after MPCA distribution cycles, so the natural question is whether the transfers themselves pushed prices up. This data cannot answer that question. All 42 Round 3 shops sit in project communities, as in the earlier rounds; there is no comparison group of markets that received no transfers, and no way to separate the effect of the distribution from seasonality, fuel costs and currency movement. What the three rounds establish is the direction, size and persistence of price change, not its cause. Including a small set of non-project markets in a future round would make attribution possible.

Largest Price Movements

Round 2 vs Round 1 · Average Cheapest Price · New SYP

Largest Increases

Commodity	Round 1 (Jun)	Round 2 (Aug)	Change vs R1	N (R1 → R2)
Lettuce ⚠	40.0	61.7	▲ +54.3%	3 → 3
Beef Meat ⚠	1,200.0	1,850.0	▲ +54.2%	3 → 2
Eggs (Local)	273.7	382.1	▲ +39.6%	6 → 7
Potato	41.7	54.4	▲ +30.5%	9 → 9
House Rental ⚠	9,750.0	12,433.3	▲ +27.5%	4 → 3
Diesel ⚠	93.4	118.8	▲ +27.2%	4 → 4
Chicken Meat	282.9	357.9	▲ +26.5%	7 → 7

Largest Decreases

Commodity	Round 1 (Jun)	Round 2 (Aug)	Change vs R1	N (R1 → R2)
Cucumber	56.4	29.4	▼ -47.9%	9 → 9
Chili Pepper	94.4	51.1	▼ -45.9%	9 → 9
Tomato	56.1	33.9	▼ -39.6%	9 → 9
Zucchini	59.6	43.3	▼ -27.3%	9 → 9
Bean	133.3	105.0	▼ -21.2%	9 → 9
Baby Diapers	400.0	320.0	▼ -20.0%	6 → 5
Pasta / Macaroni	62.1	50.8	▼ -18.2%	7 → 6

Programming implication. The fall in vegetables is seasonal and will reverse after the harvest window, while the rise in protein, diesel and rent reflects structural cost pressure. A transfer value benchmarked on the June basket therefore understates the cost of the non-seasonal core of the MEB, even though the headline basket moved only 3.7%.

Confidence caveat. Four of the seven largest increases — lettuce, beef, house rental and diesel — rest on fewer than five shops in at least one round and are marked ⚠. The declines, by contrast, are all drawn from nine-shop vegetable samples and are the more robust half of this table. Treat the ranking of increases as indicative and the direction of the vegetable fall as firm.

Basket cost in hard currency across three rounds

The New SYP strengthened between Rounds 1 and 2, from an average of 140.24 to 132.72 per USD, then eased to 134.98 in Round 3. Read in New SYP the basket rose 3.7% and then 6.8%, for a cumulative +10.7%. Read in US dollars the same basket rose 9.6% and then 5.0%, for a cumulative +15.0% (index per dollar 0.713 → 0.781 → 0.820). For a transfer value denominated or budgeted in USD, the second series is the one that governs adequacy.

Largest Price Movements — Round 3

Round 3 vs Round 2 · Average Cheapest Price · New SYP

Largest Increases

Commodity	Round 2 (Aug)	Round 3 (Sep)	Change vs R2	N (R2 → R3)
Pasta / Macaroni	50.8	83.1	▲ +63.6% ⚠	6 → 8
Cucumber	29.4	46.0	▲ +56.5%	9 → 10
Diesel ⚠	118.8	177.5	▲ +49.4%	4 → 4
Lettuce ⚠	61.7	83.3	▲ +35.0%	3 → 6
Flour (Local)	62.5	81.9	▲ +31.0%	6 → 8
Okra	200.0	247.1	▲ +23.5%	8 → 7
Tomato	33.9	41.5	▲ +22.4%	9 → 10

Largest Decreases

Commodity	Round 2 (Aug)	Round 3 (Sep)	Change vs R2	N (R2 → R3)
Iodized Salt	34.3	21.2	▼ 38.2%	7 → 8
Laundry Soap / Powder	208.0	129.2	▼ 37.9% ⚠	5 → 6
Beef Meat ⚠	1,850.0	1,600.0	▼ 13.5%	2 → 2
Eggplant	41.7	37.5	▼ 10.1%	9 → 10
Mortadella	210.0	200.0	▼ 4.8%	6 → 8
Apricot Jam ⚠	133.3	128.6	▼ 3.5%	3 → 7
Vegetable Ghee	282.9	273.8	▼ 3.2%	7 → 8

Programming implication. Round 3 is the first round in which the increase is broad rather than concentrated: nine of the ten monitored categories rose, and the three largest genuine movements — diesel (+49.4%), flour (+31.0%) and the return of vegetables to their June level — sit in the non-substitutable core of the MEB. A transfer value benchmarked on the June basket now understates that core by more than the headline 10.7% cumulative movement suggests.

Confidence caveat. Diesel rests on four shops and is marked ⚠, but its four observations agree closely (175–185 New SYP) and it is corroborated by the Market Assessment, where six traders independently reported a 40.9% rise. The vegetable and staple movements are drawn from eight- to ten-shop samples and are the most robust in the table.

Data-quality note — four items reported without a Round 3 change figure

Drinking water, house rental, sanitary pads and canned chickpeas are shown with their Round 3 average but no change percentage. In each case inspection of the raw submissions shows that the arithmetic change is an artefact of the sample rather than a price movement: drinking water mixes tanker and bottled supply across four shops (10–25 New SYP against a Round 2 spread of 3–100); house rental rests on three shops all quoting exactly 5,000 against a Round 2 spread of 6,000–18,000; sanitary pads contain a single 600 New SYP submission against a round median of 95, which reverses the sign of the average; and canned chickpeas carry a 230 New SYP outlier in Round 2 that does the same in reverse. Pasta (+63.6%) and laundry soap (−37.9%) are reported with their change figures but marked ⚠ for the same reason — in both, the median moved far less than the mean. None of the six items is included in the ranking above.

Section 03

03

Geographic
Coverage

Idleb & Hama Field Locations · 7 Communities

Geographic Distribution

Shops by Governorate, District & Village

Data collection covered 17 shops in Idleb governorate — concentrated in Al Ma'ra (11) and Idleb (6) districts — and 16 shops in Hama's Muhradah district, split evenly between Muhradah and Shayzar communities. Surveys were conducted across three field days: 24 May (11 shops), 25 May (6 shops), and 1 June (16 shops).

17

Idleb Shops

16

Hama Shops

4

Sub-Districts

7

Communities

Governorate	Sub-District	Village	Shops	%
Idleb	Kafr Nobol	Kafr Nobol	3	9.1%
	Kafr Nobol	Maar Tamater	2	6.1%
	Ma'arrat An Nu'man	Eastern Deir	3	9.1%
	Ma'arrat An Nu'man	Ma'arrat An Nu'man	3	9.1%
	Saraqab	Saraqab	6	18.2%
Hama	Muhradah	Muhradah	8	24.2%
Hama	Muhradah	Shayzar	8	24.2%
TOTAL			33	100%

Survey Date Distribution

Date	Shops	%
24 May 2026	11	33.3%
25 May 2026	6	18.2%
1 June 2026	16	48.5%

Shops by District · Round 1

Methodology Note

Sample: 33 purposively selected retail shops stratified by market type across Idleb and Hama.

Prices: Cheapest and highest price per shop per item, in New SYP (Syrian Pound after 2-zero redenomination). Ref. rate: 140.24 New SYP/USD · 46.10 TL/USD.

Coverage: Items with N<5 shops are indicative only. 43+ commodities tracked across 5 market categories.

Field Location Map

Survey Sites · Idleb (Blue) & Hama (Orange)

Interactive map: Markers are colour-coded: Blue = Idleb sites, Orange = Hama sites.

Section 04

04

Market Overview
& Price Trends

Market Types · Price Movement vs. Last Month

Market Overview & Price Trends

Market Type Distribution · Price Movement by Category

Surveyed shops were classified into five market types. Meat outlets were the most common (12 shops, 36.4%), followed by Vegetable sellers (9, 27.3%) and Basic Food shops (7, 21.2%). The price-trend picture is overwhelmingly inflationary — Basic Food, Basic Commodities and Hygiene outlets all reported 100% of shops raising prices, while even Vegetable markets showed 77.8% increasing. Importantly, despite these price pressures, supply adequacy across all categories was reported as largely sufficient, indicating that the primary humanitarian concern is household affordability rather than physical stock availability.

Market Type Distribution · Round 1

% Shops Reporting Price Increase (by Market Type) · Round 1

Category	Vegetable Trend	Basic Food Trend	General Trend	% Reporting ↑
Vegetables	▲ 48.5% ▼ 48.5%	—	—	77.8%
Basic Food	—	▲ 81.8% ▼ 15.2%	—	100%
Basic Commodities	—	—	▲ 100%	100%
Meat	—	—	▲ 58.3% ▼ 41.7%	58.3%
Hygiene Items	—	—	▲ 100%	100%
Overall (General) Price Trend				78.8% ↑

Meat is the only category where a meaningful share of shops reported decreasing prices (41.7%), partly reflecting mixed supply dynamics — including seasonal factors and export pressure on sheep (see qualitative findings, Section 09).

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: the inflationary picture broadened but softened — 81.1% of shops (30 of 37) reported month-on-month increases, up from 78.8%, while the all-item basket rose only 3.7% because a sharp seasonal fall in vegetables offset a 35% rise in protein. Round 3: it broadened further and sharpened. 92.9% of shops (39 of 42) reported increases, decreases fell to 2.4%, and the basket rose 6.8% against Round 2 — nearly twice the earlier movement — because the vegetable offset did not recur.

Section 05

05

Vegetables

Fresh Produce Prices · New SYP per Kilogram · N=9 Shops

Fresh Vegetable Prices

New SYP per Kilogram · 9 Vegetable Shops

Fresh vegetable prices showed the most balanced month-on-month movement of any category — 48.5% of observations rising and 48.5% falling — reflecting the arrival of the local vegetable season, which shopkeepers explicitly cited as easing prices. All prices are in New SYP per kilogram, reported as cheapest and highest values observed per shop.

Commodity	Avg Cheapest	Avg Highest	Min	Max	N	Adequate Supply	R2 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R1	R2 N	R3 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R2	R3 N
Potato	41.7	64.8	25	90	9	9/9 ✓	54.4	▲ +30.5%	9	53.0	▼ -2.6%	10
Tomato	56.1	76.1	35	125	9	9/9 ✓	33.9	▼ -39.6%	9	41.5	▲ +22.4%	10
Cucumber	56.4	80.6	30	100	9	8/9 ✓	29.4	▼ -47.9%	9	46.0	▲ +56.5%	10
Lettuce	40.0	48.3	30	80	3	2/3 ✓	61.7	▲ +54.3%	3 ⚠	83.3	▲ +35.0%	6
Eggplant	41.1	87.8	30	140	9	9/9 ✓	41.7	▲ +1.5%	9	37.5	▼ -10.1%	10
Zucchini	59.6	72.8	30	100	9	9/9 ✓	43.3	▼ -27.3%	9	44.0	▲ +1.6%	10
Chili Pepper	94.4	107.2	50	200	9	9/9 ✓	51.1	▼ -45.9%	9	56.0	▲ +9.6%	10
Okra ⚠	200.0	300.0	—	—	1	1/1 ✓	200.0	— 0.0%	8	247.1	▲ +23.5%	7
Bean	133.3	154.4	70	220	9	9/9 ✓	105.0	▼ -21.2%	9	119.5	▲ +13.8%	10

Price Range by Vegetable (New SYP/kg) · Round 1

Seasonal note: "Availability of the vegetable season led to price decreases" — directly cited by a shopkeeper. This explains the balanced 48.5%/48.5% increase/decrease split, unique among all monitored categories.

⚠ Okra (N=1): Only one shop priced Okra. This figure is indicative only and should not be used for household market analysis without additional data points.

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: vegetables were the only category to fall below their Round 1 level, to an index of 89.4, led by cucumber (−47.9%), chili pepper (−45.9%) and tomato (−39.6%), consistent with the summer harvest traders had flagged in Round 1. Round 3: the relief ended. The index returned to 103.2 as the harvest window closed, with cucumber (+56.5%), lettuce (+35.0%), okra (+23.5%) and tomato (+22.4%) reversing. Eggplant (−10.1%) and potato (−2.6%) were the only items still easing.

Section 06

06

Staples &
Dry Goods

Food Basket Commodities · New SYP · N=7 Shops (avg)

Staples & Dry Goods — Price Table (1 of 2)

New SYP per Unit · Basic Food Shops (N=7 unless noted)

Basic food staples showed the sharpest inflationary signal in the survey — 81.8% of basic food shops reported prices increasing vs. last month. Prices below are averages across reporting shops (cheapest and highest available price per shop). Items with fewer than 5 observations are marked indicative.

Commodity	Unit	Avg Cheapest	Avg Highest	N	R2 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R1	R2 N	R3 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R2	R3 N
Flour (Local)	per kg	60.6	71.1	7	62.5	▲ +3.1%	6	81.9	▲ +31.0%	8
Rice (Short Grain)	per kg	121.3	158.0	7	104.3	▼ -14.0%	7	119.4	▲ +14.5%	8
Bulgar (Large Grain)	per kg	90.6	98.0	7	85.0	▼ -6.2%	6	97.5	▲ +14.7%	8
Pasta / Macaroni	per kg	62.1	80.1	7	50.8	▼ -18.2%	6	83.1	▲ +63.6% ⚠	8
Bread	per loaf	42.5	57.5	4	47.5	▲ +11.8%	4 ⚠	55.7	▲ +17.3%	7
Red Lentils	per kg	125.5	136.0	6	132.9	▲ +5.9%	7	130.0	▼ -2.2%	8
Brown Lentils	per kg	122.2	148.2	6	126.7	▲ +3.7%	3 ⚠	124.3	▼ -1.9%	7
Canned Chickpeas	per can	52.7	56.7	3	97.5	⚠ n/a	4 ⚠	68.6	⚠	7
Canned Kidney Bean	per can	53.3	62.5	6	62.5	▲ +17.3%	4 ⚠	65.7	▲ +5.1%	7
Eggs (Local)	per dozen	273.7	321.2	6	382.1	▲ +39.6%	7	405.0	▲ +6.0%	8
Mortadella	per kg	68.3	165.0	7	210.0	⚠ n/a	6	200.0	▼ -4.8%	8

⚠ Items with N<5 (Bread N=4, Canned Chickpeas N=3) are indicative only and carry higher uncertainty. Treat with caution in household planning analysis.

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: staples were broadly flat at an index of 102.9, with grains easing (rice −14.0%, pasta −18.2%, bulgar −6.2%) and eggs the largest genuine increase at +39.6%. Round 3: staples became the sharpest-moving category, rising to an index of 116.4. Flour (+31.0%), bread (+17.3%), bulgar (+14.7%) and rice (+14.5%) all reversed the August easing. Pasta shows +63.6% but its sample mixes loose and packaged product — the median moved +28% — and is marked ⚠. Canned chickpeas are reported without a change figure; mortadella settled at 200.0 against 210.0, corroborating the Round 2 level and confirming that the Round 1 figure used a different unit.

Staples & Dry Goods — Price Table (2 of 2)

Oils, Fats & Condiments

Commodity	Unit	Avg Cheapest (New SYP)	Avg Highest (New SYP)	N	R2 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R1	R2 N	R3 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R2	R3 N
White Sugar	per kg	92.3	97.1	7	94.6	▲ +2.5%	7	101.9	▲ +7.7%	8
Apricot Jam	per jar	206.7	261.7	3	133.3	▼ -35.5%	3 ⚠	128.6	▼ -3.5%	7
Vegetable Ghee	per kg	297.5	381.3	6	282.9	▼ -4.9%	7	273.8	▼ -3.2%	8
Vegetable Oil	per litre	259.3	277.1	7	284.3	▲ +9.6%	7	298.8	▲ +5.1%	8
Olive Oil	per litre	671.3	823.8	4	750.0	▲ +11.7%	4 ⚠	805.0	▲ +7.3%	6
Iodized Salt	per kg	44.9	48.3	6	34.3	▼ -23.6%	7	21.2	▼ -38.2%	8

Selected Staple Price Ranges (New SYP) — Avg Cheapest vs Highest · Round 1

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: cooking oils moved modestly (vegetable oil +9.6%, olive oil +11.7%, ghee −4.9%) and sugar was near-flat at +2.5%, while apricot jam (−35.5%) and iodized salt (−23.6%) fell on small, widely dispersed samples. Round 3: the drift upward continued — vegetable oil +5.1%, olive oil +7.3%, sugar +7.7% — while ghee eased 3.2%. Iodized salt fell a further 38.2% on a consistent eight-shop sample, and apricot jam was near-flat at −3.5% on a much improved sample (N=3 → 7).

Data-quality note — two items excluded from the change column

Mortadella and canned chickpeas show apparent increases of +207% and +85% between rounds. Inspection of the raw submissions indicates a unit inconsistency rather than a real price movement — Round 1 mortadella prices cluster at 40–100 New SYP against a Round 2 cluster of 150–160, which is implausible for a processed meat priced per kilogram alongside chicken at 283. Both items are therefore reported with their Round 2 average but no change figure, and both are excluded from the Largest Price Movements ranking in Section 02.

Section 07

07

Proteins

Meat & Poultry Prices · New SYP per Kilogram

Protein Prices — Meat & Poultry

New SYP per Kilogram · 12 Meat Shops

Meat prices span a wide range, from chicken at an average 282.9–396.4 New SYP/kg to sheep meat at 1,843–1,952 New SYP/kg. Meat was the most common shop type (12 shops, 36.4%), yet the only category where a significant share (41.7%) reported prices decreasing, reflecting mixed supply dynamics.

282.9

Chicken Avg Min (New SYP/kg)

1,843

Sheep Avg Min (New SYP/kg)

1,200

Beef Avg Min (New SYP/kg)

Commodity	Avg Cheapest (New SYP/kg)	Avg Highest (New SYP/kg)	Min	Max	N	Adequate Supply	R2 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R1	R2 N	R3 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R2	R3 N
Chicken Meat	282.9	396.4	200	525	7	6/7 ✓	357.9	▲ +26.5%	7	430.7	▲ +20.3%	7
Sheep Meat	1,843.3	1,951.7	1,100	2,300	6	6/6 ✓	2,316.7	▲ +25.7%	6	2,464.3	▲ +6.4%	7
Beef Meat ⚠	1,200.0	1,283.3	500	1,700	3	2/3 ✓	1,850.0	▲ +54.2%	2 ⚠	1,600.0	▼ -13.5%	2 ⚠

Protein Price Ranges (New SYP/kg) — Avg Cheapest vs Highest · Round 1

Qualitative insight: Shopkeepers cited "sheep being exported outside the region" as a driver of meat price increases, tightening local supply and contributing to upward pressure despite the 41.7% decrease rate.

⚠ Beef (N=3): Only 3 shops reported beef prices. Wide price range (500–1,700 New SYP/kg) reflects limited sample size; treat as indicative.

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: protein was the sharpest-rising category, reaching an index of 135.5 — beef +54.2% (N=2, indicative), chicken +26.5%, sheep +25.7%. Round 3: protein remains the highest index at 139.8, but the pace slowed markedly: chicken +20.3% and sheep +6.4% against Round 2, with beef −13.5% on a two-shop sample and indicative only. Because meat is the single most expensive line in the food basket, this category carries more weight for transfer-value adequacy than its share of the item list suggests.

Section 08

08

Utilities &
Housing

Fuel · Water · Monthly Rental

Utilities & Housing Costs

Fuel, Water & Rental · N=4 Shops per Category

Utility and energy costs represent a critical indirect driver of food prices — fuel costs directly feed into transport expenses, which were the second most-cited price driver (58 total citations). Four shops per commodity reported utility prices, limiting precision; values should be read as indicative benchmarks.

Commodity	Unit	Avg Cheapest (New SYP)	Avg Highest (New SYP)	Min	Max	N	R2 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R1	R2 N	R3 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R2	R3 N
Drinking Water ⚠	per 1,000 L (tanker)	26.4	31.4	0.3	120	4	28.8	▲ +9.1%	6	13.8	⚠	4 ⚠
Cooking Gas	per cylinder	1,726.3	1,726.3	1,650	1,785	4	1,477.5	▼ -14.4%	6	1,600.0	▲ +8.3%	4 ⚠
Diesel	per litre	93.4	93.4	12.7	123	4	118.8	▲ +27.2%	4 ⚠	177.5	▲ +49.4%	4 ⚠
House Rental ⚠	per month (1–2 room unit, unfurnished)	9,750	48,375	7,000	150,000	4	12,433.3	▲ +27.5%	3 ⚠	5,000.0	⚠	3 ⚠

⚠ Drinking Water (N=4): Reported prices (0.3–120 New SYP) reflect mixed delivery methods — household tap connections vs. commercial water tanker/jerry-can delivery. Average values (26.4/31.4 New SYP per 1,000 L) are indicative; context of delivery type should be confirmed with respondents.

⚠ House Rental (N=4, extreme range): Monthly rental ranged from 7,000 to 150,000 New SYP for 1–2 room unfurnished units, reflecting wide variation in location, condition and demand across the survey area. No supply-adequacy data was collected for rentals. Treat as indicative.

Fuel as price driver: Cooking Gas (avg 1,726 New SYP/cylinder) and Diesel (avg 93 New SYP/litre, but wide range) represent significant household and transport expenditure. High fuel costs directly translate into the transport costs most frequently cited by shopkeepers as a driver of food price increases.

Fuel Price Comparison (New SYP) — Cooking Gas vs Diesel (×10 for scale) · Round 1

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: utilities rose to an index of 112.3, driven by diesel (+27.2%) and monthly rent (+27.5%), while cooking gas fell 14.4%. Round 3: diesel rose 49.4%, from 118.8 to 177.5 New SYP per litre across all four fuel shops — a consistent increase that transmits into transport and therefore into every other category — and cooking gas rose 8.3%. Drinking water and monthly rent are reported without change figures this round; both are quoted in inconsistent units by three or four shops, so the category index of 96.6 should be read from diesel and gas directly rather than from the index alone.

Section 09

09

Hygiene Items

Household Hygiene Essentials · New SYP · 6 Shops

Hygiene Item Prices

New SYP · 6 Hygiene Shops (18.2% of total)

Hygiene items were sold by 6 of the 33 surveyed shops (18.2%). All 6 hygiene shops reported price increases — a 100% increase rate, the joint highest of any category. Sanitary pads and baby diapers are critical non-food items for vulnerable households and warrant monitoring as part of the MPCA basket assessment.

100%

Hygiene Shops Reporting ↑

6

Hygiene Shops Surveyed

18.2%

Share of Total Shops

Commodity	Unit	Avg Cheapest (New SYP)	Avg Highest (New SYP)	N	R2 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R1	R2 N	R3 Avg Cheapest	Change vs R2	R3 N
Laundry Soap / Powder	per kg / pack	179.3	221.7	6	208.0	▲ +16.0%	5	129.2	▼ -37.9% ⚠	6
Sanitary Pads	per pack	117.0	138.0	5	142.0	▲ +21.4%	5	176.7	⚠	6
Baby Diapers	per pack	400.0	455.0	5	320.0	▼ -20.0%	5	351.7	▲ +9.9%	6

Hygiene Item Price Range (New SYP) — Avg Cheapest vs Highest · Round 1

Baby diapers represent the highest absolute hygiene cost (avg 400–455 New SYP/pack), posing a significant burden for households with infants in the context of already-stretched purchasing power. Sanitary pads (117–138 New SYP/pack) are a critical dignity item for women and girls.

Rounds 2 & 3 update — August & September 2026

Round 2: hygiene items rose to an index of 105.8 — sanitary pads +21.4% and laundry soap +16.0%, offset by baby diapers −20.0%, all on five-shop samples. Round 3: the category was near-flat at 103.7. Baby diapers rose 9.9%. Sanitary pads are reported without a change figure — a single 600 New SYP submission against a round median of 95 reverses the sign of the average — and laundry soap's −37.9% is marked ⚠ for the same reason. All three rest on six-shop samples.

Section 10

10

Price Change
Factors

Drivers of Price Movement · Shopkeeper Perspectives

Price Change Factors

% of Shops Citing Each Factor (Multiple Responses Allowed)

Shopkeepers were asked to identify the main reasons behind recent price changes across three dimensions — vegetables, basic food, and general prices. Currency fluctuation and transport costs dominated across every market category, confirming that macroeconomic and logistics pressures, rather than local supply or demand shifts, are the primary drivers of the current inflationary trend.

68

Currency Citations

58

Transport Citations

31

Demand Citations

21

Taxes Citations

Price Change Factors by Category (% of Shops Citing) · Round 1

Qualitative insight 1: "Sheep being exported outside the region" — cited as a driver of meat price increases, linking livestock export dynamics to local food security.

Qualitative insight 2: "Availability of the vegetable season led to price decreases" — explaining why 48.5% of vegetable shops reported falling prices despite the general inflationary trend.

Key Finding

78.8% of monitored shops
reported rising prices
vs. last month

Currency depreciation and transport costs are the dominant drivers. Supply adequacy is largely sufficient — the crisis is one of affordability, not availability — making cash-based response the priority intervention.

Donor

Implementing Partner

Implemented by Shafak Organisation · Funded by IOM
Idleb & Hama Governorates, Syria · MPCA 634 · May–September 2026 · v3