MPCA 634 · Rapid Needs Assessment · Syria
Rapid Needs
Assessment
Report
Idleb & Hama Governorates — Displaced & Returning Populations
Donor
Implementing Partner
Executive Summary
Key Findings · MPCA 634 · May–June 2026
Shafak Organisation, with the support of IOM, conducted a Rapid Needs Assessment of 145 households (770 individuals) across Idleb (75.2%) and Hama (24.8%) governorates of Syria during late May and early June 2026. All surveyed households are returnees who recently re-established in areas classified at Severity Level 4 under the HNO. The assessment documents acute and overlapping vulnerabilities confirming the urgent need for Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA).
1
Universal income deficit — 143 of 145 households cannot cover basic needs
Average monthly income is 16,117 New SYP (~$115 USD) against average monthly expenses of 31,007 New SYP (~$221 USD), yielding a household deficit of approximately 14,890 New SYP/month (~$106 USD). Not a single household received cash assistance in the six months preceding the assessment.
2
Severe shelter conditions — 61.4% of properties are majorly damaged or destroyed
53.1% of households returned to properties with major damage, and 8.3% to completely destroyed structures. Nearly half (49.7%) currently live in abandoned or unfinished buildings — a compounding protection and survival risk that MPCA transfers can partially address through enabling household-led repairs.
3
Widespread food insecurity — 97.2% use negative coping strategies
97.2% of households rely on cheaper or less preferred foods, 61.4% reduce their number of daily meals, and 25.5% borrow food or depend on social networks. These coping indicators confirm acute and persistent food insecurity among the surveyed population.
4
Unanimous preference for cash — 100% of households prefer MPCA
All 145 households identified cash support as their primary preference, with 99.3% specifying direct cash sums as the delivery method. This aligns directly with the planned 3-round MPCA intervention of USD 150 per household per round targeting 2,800 households across the assessed sub-districts.
Summary Dashboard
Headline Indicators · MPCA 634
0%
Cash Assistance Received (6 mo.)
140
New SYP / USD (Survey Rate)
Income vs. Expenditure Gap
Vulnerability Profile Overview
Pregnant / Lactating Women (PLW)
MPCA suitability conclusion: The assessment confirms that surveyed households face acute multi-sectoral needs driven by universal income deficit, severely damaged shelter, food insecurity, and compounding vulnerabilities. The findings strongly support the planned delivery of three rounds of Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (USD 150/household/round) targeting 2,800 households, and are fully consistent with HNO Severity Level 4 classifications in the targeted sub-districts.
Section 02
02
Geographic
Coverage
Idleb & Hama · 5 Sub-Districts · 15 Communities · 145 Households
Field Location Map
Survey Communities · Idleb & Hama Governorates
Idleb Governorate (109 HH)
Hama Governorate (36 HH)
Interactive in HTML · Static snapshot in PDF
Geographic Distribution of Assessed Households
By Governorate, District, Sub-District & Community
The RNA covered 145 returnee households across 2 governorates, 3 districts, 5 sub-districts, and 15 communities. Idleb accounted for 75.2% of the sample (109 HH) and Hama 24.8% (36 HH). Data was collected between 24 May and 1 June 2026.
Households by Governorate
Sub-District Distribution
| Governorate | District | Sub-District | HH | % |
| Idleb | Al Ma'ra | Kafr Nobol | 44 | 30.3% |
| Maarrat An Nu'man | 20 | 13.8% |
| Idleb | Saraqab | 45 | 31.0% |
| Hama | Muhradah | Muhradah | 26 | 17.9% |
| Karnaz | 10 | 6.9% |
| TOTAL | 145 | 100% |
Community / Village Breakdown
| Community | Sub-Dist. | HH | Community | Sub-Dist. | HH |
| Hazarin | Kafr Nobol | 10 | Al-Huwair | Kafr Nobol | 10 |
| Milaja | Kafr Nobol | 10 | Jalma | Karnaz | 10 |
| Maar Tamater | Kafr Nobol | 10 | Al-Tafrana | Muhradah | 8 |
| Halbeh | Maarrat An N. | 10 | Tal Milh | Muhradah | 8 |
| Eastern Deir | Maarrat An N. | 10 | Big Dara | Kafr Nobol | 7 |
| Rasafa | Saraqab | 10 | Faqie | Kafr Nobol | 7 |
| Maharim | Saraqab | 10 | Tal Tabariz | Saraqab | 5 |
| Khuwara | Saraqab | 10 | Other/specified | 10 |
Section 03
03
Household
Profile
Demographics · Marital Status · Civil Documentation · Vulnerabilities
Household Profile & Composition
HH Size · Composition · Marital Status · Civil Documentation
The average household size is 5.31 members (770 individuals across 145 HH). Households are large, with 26.2% having 7 or more members — indicating high dependency ratios. 83.4% of households are headed by married individuals; 9.7% are widow-headed — a significant protection vulnerability. Civil documentation coverage is strong at 96.6%, though 3.4% (5 HH) lack valid ID documents, creating a protection gap requiring referral.
Household Size Distribution (N=145)
Marital Status of HH Head
| Household Composition | Avg / HH | Total (all HH) | Min | Max |
| Total HH Members | 5.31 | 770 | 1 | 11 |
| Adult Males (18+) | 1.24 | 180 | 0 | 3 |
| Adult Females (18+) | 1.36 | 197 | 0 | 5 |
| Children Aged 5–17 | 1.87 | 271 | 0 | 6 |
| Children Under 5 | 0.85 | 123 | 0 | 3 |
| Members Worked (last 30 days) | 0.99 | 144 | 0 | 3 |
Vulnerability Profile
Special Needs Categories · Multi-Select · % of Households
Vulnerability is widespread and often overlapping. 37.9% of households include pregnant or lactating women, 31% have chronically ill members, and 29% include elderly persons (60+). Given multi-select survey methodology, many households carry two or more vulnerability categories simultaneously — making the population among the most at-risk in the region.
Vulnerability Categories (% of HH)
*Multi-select — household may report more than one category; % shown as share of all 145 HH
31%
Chronically Ill (45 HH)
Protection note: 9.7% of households are widow-headed and 5.5% host orphaned or unaccompanied children. These households face compounded protection and economic risks and should be prioritised in MPCA targeting.
Health vulnerability: With 31% of households reporting at least one chronically ill member, the significant share of income spent on health (53.8% of households) reflects a hidden cost burden that cash assistance can directly alleviate — reducing dependence on debt financing of health costs.
Section 04
04
Displacement
& Return
Displacement History · Return Reasons · Timeline · Origins
Displacement History & Return Dynamics
Return Reasons · Displacement Frequency · Timeline
All 145 surveyed households are returnees. Households were displaced an average of 2.55 times over the past 5 years (median: 3 times, range: 0–5), with first displacements recorded as early as 2012. The majority returned to their areas of origin between late 2024 and mid-2025, primarily from displacement camps in northern Syria including Atma, Killi, Qah, Sarmada, and Afrin. Returns were predominantly driven by improved security conditions and family reunification motives — a fragile but protective return dynamic.
Primary Reasons for Return (% of HH, Multi-Select)
*Multi-select — households may cite more than one reason
2015
Median First Displaced
Apr 2025
Median Return Date
Return origins: Households returned primarily from IDP camps — Atma (16), Mkhaymat Atma (16), Sarmada (13), Afrin (11), Killi (9), Qah camps (6+) — representing protracted displacement of up to 13 years.
Displacement timeline: First displacement spans 2012–2020; last displacement 2013–2024. Most households arrived at current sites between 2017 and early 2026 and formally returned by April–August 2025 — indicating a critical transition period still ongoing at the time of assessment.
Section 05
05
Shelter &
Property
Property Damage · Current Shelter Type · Living Conditions
Shelter & Property Conditions
Property Damage Assessment · Current Shelter Type
The shelter situation among returnee households is acute. 53.1% of properties require significant rehabilitation and 8.3% are completely destroyed — meaning 61.4% of assessed households returned to non-habitable or barely habitable structures. Only 2.8% of properties were found intact. Correspondingly, 49.7% of households currently live in abandoned or unfinished buildings, reflecting the absence of safe housing options in areas of return.
Property / Shelter Status After Return (N=145)
Current Shelter Type (N=145)
49.7%
In Abandoned/Unfinished
Critical shelter risk: With nearly half of households sheltering in abandoned or unfinished structures, the risk of secondary displacement, safety incidents, and health deterioration is significant. MPCA transfers — combined with targeted referrals to shelter/NFI sectors — can support household-level emergency repairs and reduce this exposure.
Section 06
06
Livelihoods,
Income & Food
Employment · Income Sources · Expenditure · Food Security
Livelihoods & Income Profile
Employment Types · Income Sources · Financial Indicators
Livelihoods among returnee households are overwhelmingly informal and precarious. 53.8% engage in temporary employment and 31% in seasonal work; only 5.5% hold permanent employment. 0% of households received cash assistance in the preceding 6 months, while 51.7% depend on agriculture and 46.9% on day-to-day seasonal labour — income streams highly sensitive to seasonal volatility and weather shocks.
Employment Type (last 30 days)
Income Sources (% of HH, Multi-Select)
16,117
Avg Monthly Income (New SYP)
31,007
Avg Monthly Expenses (New SYP)
0%
Received Cash Aid (6 mo.)
Income gap: Average monthly income (~$115 USD) covers just 52% of average expenses (~$221 USD), leaving a monthly deficit of approximately $106 USD per household. This directly validates the planned MPCA transfer of USD 150/round as meaningful and proportionate support.
8.3% have no income source (12 HH). These households face the highest level of economic destitution and must be prioritised in targeting. An additional 3.4% rely solely on humanitarian organizations, reflecting near-total economic dependency.
Coping Mechanisms & Expenditure
Negative Coping Strategies · Spending Categories · Food Security
The severity of food insecurity is starkly evidenced by near-universal adoption of negative coping strategies. 97.2% of households rely on cheaper or less preferred foods — the most common reduced coping strategy indicator (rCSI) — and 61.4% reduce the number of meals per day. Expenditure is dominated by food (100% of HH spend on food) and debt relief (66.9%), confirming a cycle of indebtedness directly linked to income shortfalls.
Coping Mechanisms (last 7 days · % of HH)
*Multi-select; % shown as share of all 145 HH
Where Income Is Spent (% of HH)
*Multi-select; % shown as share of all 145 HH
Food insecurity alert: The combination of 97.2% cheaper-food reliance, 61.4% meal reduction, and 100% income spent on food constitutes evidence of acute food insecurity consistent with IPC Phase 3+ (Crisis) conditions. Immediate MPCA support is critical to interrupting these coping patterns.
Debt burden: 66.9% of households allocate income to debt relief — indicating that the majority have accumulated debt to finance survival needs. This debt trap reduces households' capacity to invest in recovery and makes them highly vulnerable to further shocks.
Section 07
07
Assistance
Needs
Support Preferences · Delivery Method · Beneficiary Voice
Assistance Needs & Preferences
Support Type · Delivery Method · Food Assistance · Qualitative Feedback
Household preferences are unambiguous: 100% of all 145 surveyed households identified cash support as their primary need, with 99.3% specifying direct cash sums as the preferred delivery mechanism. This universal cash preference — combined with functional local markets confirmed by prior market assessments — strongly validates MPCA as the most appropriate and demand-driven response modality. Only 2.8% (4 households) received any food basket assistance in the 3 months prior to the survey.
Preferred Support Type (% of HH, Multi-Select)
Preferred Support Method (% of HH)
99.3%
Prefer Direct Cash Sums
37.9%
Also Need Food Items
2.8%
Received Food Basket (3 mo.)
Cash-first validation: The unanimous preference for cash — combined with 0% cash assistance coverage in the past 6 months — confirms a critical, unmet need. Local markets in the target sub-districts support cash-based programming; direct transfers will preserve household dignity and autonomy.
Beneficiary Voice
"We need support for shelter rehabilitation and agricultural projects."
— Household respondent, RNA qualitative response. This feedback underlines the importance of cross-sectoral referral pathways alongside MPCA — particularly for shelter rehabilitation and livelihood recovery.
Section 08
08
Conclusions &
Recommendations
Findings Summary · Strategic Recommendations · Way Forward
Conclusions & Recommendations
Summary Findings · Strategic Recommendations
Positive Findings
✓ All 145 HH successfully surveyed with 100% data completion.
✓ 96.6% hold valid civil documentation — enabling swift registration.
✓ 100% preference for cash — full alignment with planned MPCA modality.
✓ Functional local markets in target sub-districts support cash delivery.
✓ Security-driven returns (73.1%) indicate stabilisation in return areas.
Critical Needs & Risks
✗ 98.6% of HH in monthly income deficit (~$106 USD/month average).
✗ 0% received any cash assistance in the preceding 6 months.
✗ 61.4% returned to majorly damaged or destroyed property.
✗ 97.2% using negative food coping strategies (rCSI evidence).
✗ 3.4% lack civil documentation — protection referral needed.
Strategic Recommendations
R1
Proceed with MPCA at planned scale — 2,800 HH × USD 150 × 3 rounds
All assessment findings confirm acute, unmet cash needs. The planned three-round MPCA at USD 150/HH/round is proportionate to the average monthly deficit (~$106 USD) and should be delivered without delay. Registration should begin within the first month of project implementation.
R2
Prioritise households with compounding vulnerabilities in targeting
Widow-headed households (9.7%), households with PLW (37.9%), chronically ill members (31%), disabled members (12.4%), and households with no income source (8.3%) should receive priority scoring under CWG targeting criteria. Applying the CWG Prioritisation Tool will ensure equitable, needs-based selection.
R3
Review transfer value monthly against the Minimum Expenditure Basket
With average household expenses at ~$221 USD/month versus average income of ~$115 USD, the $106 monthly gap aligns with the planned USD 150 transfer but must be reviewed monthly against the MEB to maintain purchasing power amid seasonal price fluctuations.
R4
Activate cross-sectoral referrals for shelter, health, and documentation
MPCA must be complemented by referrals: shelter rehabilitation referrals for the 61.4% with majorly damaged/destroyed property; health-sector referrals for 31% with chronic illness; and protection referrals for 3.4% lacking civil documentation — including children's birth certificates for 5 households.
Assessment Outcome
100% of surveyed households
are returnees in acute deficit —
MPCA intervention is urgent
145 households, 770 individuals — 98.6% living below expenditure threshold, 0% reached by cash assistance in 6 months, 100% demanding cash support. The evidence base for immediate MPCA delivery is unequivocal.
Donor
Implementing Partner
MPCA 634 · Rapid Needs Assessment · Idleb & Hama Governorates, Syria · June 2026
Implemented by Shafak Organisation (شفق) · Funded by International Organisation for Migration (IOM)